ECONOMETRIC MODELING AND FORECASTING OF INFLATION: A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS IN UZBEKISTAN

Authors

  • Sharipova Bibijon Baxtiyorovna Assistant professor, Department of General Technical Sciences, Asia International University

Keywords:

Inflation, Econometrics, Statistical Analysis, Forecasting, Macroeconomic Factors, Monetary Policy, Economic Stability, Uzbekistan, Price Dynamics, Economic Growth

Abstract

 Inflation remains one of the most persistent and influential macroeconomic phenomena that shape the performance and stability of national economies. Understanding its causes, mechanisms, and implications is essential for formulating effective monetary and fiscal policies. This research paper examines the nature of inflation, its role in the economy, and the main macroeconomic factors influencing it, with a particular focus on Uzbekistan. The study employs an econometric and statistical perspective to discuss how inflation can be modeled, analyzed, and forecasted. It highlights the importance of data-driven decision-making and demonstrates how econometric tools can support policymakers in controlling inflationary pressures. The research also emphasizes the dynamic interaction between monetary variables, economic growth, and price stability, showing that maintaining moderate and predictable inflation is vital for sustainable development.

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References

Asian Development Bank. (2023). Asian Development Outlook 2023: Financing Sustainable Development in Asia and the Pacific. Manila: ADB.

Retrieved from https://www.adb.org

Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan. (2024). Monetary Policy Review. Tashkent: CBU Publications. Retrieved from https://cbu.uz/en/

Friedman, M. (1968). The Role of Monetary Policy. American Economic Review, 58(1) ,1–17. https://doi.org/10.2307/1831652

International Monetary Fund. (2023). World Economic Outlook: Navigating Global Divergences. Washington, D.C.: IMF.

Retrieved from https://www.imf.org

Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan.

Lucas, R. E. (1972). Expectations and the Neutrality of Money. Journal of Economic Theory, 4(2), 103–124.https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(72)90142-1

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Published

2025-10-23

How to Cite

Sharipova Bibijon Baxtiyorovna. (2025). ECONOMETRIC MODELING AND FORECASTING OF INFLATION: A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS IN UZBEKISTAN. Journal of Applied Science and Social Science, 15(10), 1224–1233. Retrieved from https://www.internationaljournal.co.in/index.php/jasass/article/view/2204

Issue

Vol. 15 No. 10 (2025): Volume 15 Issue 10

Section

Articles

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