FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY AND ADEQUACY IN UZBEKISTAN’S PENSION SYSTEM: EVIDENCE FROM CONTRIBUTORS, BENEFICIARIES, AND FISCAL OUTCOMES

Abstract

Ensuring adequate retirement incomes while preserving fiscal sustainability remains a central challenge for public pension systems, particularly in emerging economies experiencing demographic change and evolving labour markets. This paper analyses the financial sustainability and adequacy of Uzbekistan’s pension system using administrative data on pension fund income and expenditure for 2025, the structure of the contributor base as of mid-2025, and pensioner dynamics over the period 2014–2025. The analysis shows that while revenue execution remains relatively strong, pension expenditures have begun to exceed annual revenues, increasing reliance on liquidity buffers. Over the same period, the number of pensioners increased by almost 58 percent, driven primarily by growth in old-age pensions. Using a scenario-based framework, the paper evaluates four reform levers: improving contribution coverage and compliance, strengthening indexation discipline, reinforcing the contribution–benefit link, and tightening preferential retirement pathways. The findings suggest that expanding effective contribution coverage offers the most balanced and sustainable reform option, delivering fiscal gains while limiting adverse effects on benefit adequacy. The paper provides an evidence-based framework to support pension reform design in Uzbekistan and comparable emerging economies.