DETERMINANTS OF FOOD PRICE INFLATION IN UZBEKISTAN: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Abstract

Food price inflation is a critical macroeconomic challenge that disproportionately affects import-dependent economies. This study investigates the key determinants of food inflation in Uzbekistan by applying a multiple regression model that incorporates exchange rate movements, import dependency, fuel prices, and climate shocks. Using annual macroeconomic data over a 10–20-year period, the model was estimated through Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and subjected to diagnostic tests to ensure robustness. The empirical results demonstrate that fuel prices and climate shocks are the most significant drivers of food inflation, while exchange rate fluctuations and import dependency did not exhibit statistical significance within the dataset. Specifically, increases in fuel prices were found to raise food inflation through higher transportation and production costs, whereas adverse climate events such as droughts and floods exerted the strongest upward pressure on food prices. These findings underscore the predominance of supply-side and environmental shocks in shaping food inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan. From a policy perspective, the results highlight the importance of stabilizing energy costs, strengthening climate resilience strategies, and pursuing structural reforms to enhance food security. The study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence on the relative importance of macroeconomic and environmental factors in driving food inflation in a developing, import-dependent economy.